PFF breaks down Week 16’s Sunday Evening Soccer matchup by each groups’ data, key tendencies and a recreation overview earlier than delivering one of the best wager backed by PFF’s trusted betting mannequin.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4) vs Dallas Cowboys [Total: 48.5]
Recreation Overview
The Week 16 Sunday slate wraps up with an intriguing NFC matchup between two groups in very totally different conditions—but each excelling in current betting markets.
Tampa Bay has formally taken management of the NFC South from Atlanta, driving a powerful four-game successful streak that features three highway victories. Their Week 15 dismantling of the Chargers as 3-point underdogs underscored their momentum. The Buccaneers are 5-1 in opposition to the unfold (ATS) over their final six video games and 5-2 ATS on the highway this season.
Whereas Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers‘ offense have earned deserved reward for his or her current performances, the protection has quietly risen to prominence. Since Week 12, Tampa’s protection has produced the league’s second-best mark in EPA allowed per play.
House-field benefit could assist Dallas counter a robust opponent, however the Cowboys have struggled in entrance of their followers, posting a 1-6 ATS document at house. Although they’ve proven some current promise with a 3-1 ATS mark over their final 4 video games, their time with Cooper Rush below heart has been inconsistent. Since Rush took over in Week 9, Dallas has gone simply 3-4 ATS.
The Cowboys’ saving grace has been their rejuvenated protection, bolstered by Micah Parsons’ return in Week 10. Since then, the unit has earned the fourth-highest general defensive grade (73.0) within the league.
Whereas the Cowboys have not been mathematically eradicated from playoff competition, they face an uphill battle—each in opposition to the Buccaneers and within the NFC standings.
WR Jalen McMillan, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Over 37.5 Receiving & Dashing yards (-115)
The primary-year wideout has rapidly gained the belief of each Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers‘ offense along with his current breakout performances. Earlier than Week 14, McMillan had simply 13 receptions for 145 yards. Nonetheless, over the previous two weeks, he has exploded for 9 catches, 134 yards, and three touchdowns. Throughout this stretch, McMillan has averaged 2.44 yards per route run, recorded 5 explosive performs, and earned a 23.6% menace proportion.
Dallas continues to seek for solutions at cornerback reverse DaRon Bland following the season-ending harm to Trevon Diggs. Amani Oruwariye stepped into the position final week however struggled, surrendering three receptions for 103 yards and a landing whereas incomes a 50.9 PFF protection grade.
If the Cowboys choose to depend on Oruwariye once more, count on Mayfield to assault the weak nook along with his rising younger receiver.
