PFF breaks down Week 18’s Sunday Evening Soccer matchup by each groups’ data, key developments and a recreation overview earlier than delivering the perfect wager backed by PFF’s trusted betting mannequin.
Recreation Overview
The 2024 NFL common season finale guarantees excessive stakes and playoff-level depth because the Vikings and Lions conflict at Ford Discipline with the NFC North crown and the convention’s No. 1 seed on the road. The winner secures not solely bragging rights but in addition a first-round bye and home-field benefit all through the postseason.
Each groups have been powerhouses in betting markets, tied for the league’s greatest cowl share at 73.3% (11-4-1 ATS). But, their current developments inform completely different tales.
Whereas Detroit has been the division’s pace-setter, they’ve faltered barely down the stretch. Since Thanksgiving, the Lions are 2-2-1 in opposition to the unfold, together with a winless 0-2-1 mark at dwelling.
Conversely, Minnesota has been constructing momentum, compiling a 4-1 ATS report since December started. Nonetheless, 4 of these 5 video games had been performed at dwelling, leaving questions on their skill to carry out within the hostile playoff-like environment of Ford Discipline. That mentioned, the Vikings’ 4-2-1 ATS highway report and excellent 4-0 ATS mark as underdogs this season recommend they’ll rise to the event.
The Lions carry the arrogance of current success in opposition to their division rivals, having gained outright as 1.5-point underdogs in Minnesota throughout their Week 7 showdown.
In that recreation, Detroit led 28-17 heading into the fourth quarter, just for the Vikings to storm again. A David Montgomery fumble, which was returned for a landing by Ivan Tempo Jr., gave Minnesota a late edge. Nonetheless, a failed two-point conversion stored the Lions inside attain, paving the best way for Jake Bates to seal the win with a dramatic game-winning discipline aim as time expired.
WR Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings: Over 93.5 Receiving yards (-113)
Jefferson continues to show why he’s one of many league’s elite, having produced the fourth-highest PFF receiving grade (90.3) at his place this season. A grasp of the deep ball, Jefferson leads the NFL with 41 receptions of 15 or extra yards—seven greater than his closest competitor, Ja’Marr Chase.
This week, Jefferson will get a positive matchup in opposition to a reshuffled and undermanned Lions secondary. Following Carlton Davis III’s harm in Week 15, Detroit has adjusted by shifting Amik Robertson to the surface and Brian Department again into the slot. Whereas Robertson has held his personal, first-year nook Terrion Arnold has struggled mightily. Arnold’s 48.8 PFF protection grade ranks 112th out of 117 qualifying corners.
Over his final three video games, Arnold has allowed a median of 12.7 yards per protection goal, together with a 15-plus yard reception on 5.7% of his protection snaps. With this mismatch in Jefferson’s favor, anticipate the Vikings to take advantage of the Lions’ secondary all through the sport.
