Every week in the course of the 2024-25 NBA season, we are going to take a deeper dive into a number of the league’s largest storylines in an try to find out whether or not tendencies are based mostly extra in reality or fiction transferring ahead.
[Last week: The NBA’s 2024 free-agency class was a dud]
Truth or Fiction: LeBron James’ Lakers are caught within the center
Following a highway victory towards the defending champion Boston Celtics this season, Golden State Warriors famous person Stephen Curry simplified issues: “A superb group, or a related group, wins the video games they’re alleged to win, steals a pair on the highway towards good groups and protects dwelling court docket.”
By this definition, LeBron James’ Los Angeles Lakers (12-10) are an excellent group. They’re in place for a play-in event bid in a crowded Western Convention. They’re 10-3 towards groups with a worse report than them, they’ve stolen three highway wins from would-be postseason groups, and they’re 7-3 at dwelling.
However what makes a nice group? It wins greater than the video games it is alleged to. Championship groups this century have received on common 63% of their video games towards groups with a .500 report or higher in the course of the common season. And so they steal greater than a pair on the highway towards good groups. Title groups since 2000 have equally averaged a .635 successful proportion towards groups on the highway within the common season.
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Solely three groups have exceeded each marks by way of the primary quarter of this season: the Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers and Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder, which is a reasonably good quick record of the true contenders.
Simply how a lot do these benchmarks imply to a group’s title aspirations? Solely one of many 25 champions this century, the 2006 Miami Warmth, completed under .500 (19-21) towards opponents with successful information. And just one champion since 2000, the 2023 Denver Nuggets, registered a sub-.500 report (19-22) on the highway. In different phrases, it’s virtually not possible to win a title with a shedding report in each classes.
Two different groups — the Dallas Mavericks and Houston Rockets — are higher than .500 on the highway and towards successful opponents. You can even be ok with together with them on any longer record of contenders. One made the NBA Finals final season; the opposite is in second place in that stacked Western Convention.
The total record for all groups this season in each classes:
No group is combating tougher than the Lakers towards championship indicators to log a successful report.
They’re 5-9 towards groups with successful information and 5-7 on the highway. Because the season’s first two video games, when James and Anthony Davis had been recent from an offseason, the Lakers have three high quality wins — one towards the Memphis Grizzlies, who had been with out Ja Morant, and two towards the 11-10 San Antonio Spurs.
Over the previous two weeks, because the grind of the common season takes its toll on a 39-year-old James and the oft-injured Davis, the Lakers have been outscored by 16.8 factors per 100 possessions, losers of 4 20-point blowouts. Solely the Washington Wizards, who’ve misplaced 15 straight, have been worse in that span.
The Lakers personal a -4.7 web ranking, equal to each the Charlotte Hornets (6-15) and a 27-win projection.
That’s startling. Extra regarding: The Lakers are being outscored by 9.3 factors per 100 possessions when James is on the ground. Their ranking offensively (109.0) and defensively (118.3) when he’s on the court docket is equal to the NBA’s Twenty fifth- and Twenty ninth-ranked outfits. (That’s unhealthy.) It doesn’t assist that the Lakers have surrounded him with porous defenders, save Davis. And it’s a marvel they’ve the report they do.
By this definition, not Curry’s, the Lakers will not be even an excellent group. However we are going to give them the good thing about the doubt. I don’t care to argue about whether or not they’re good, common or unhealthy. They aren’t nice.
Whether or not or not James is hitting a wall at age 40 is a query for one more day — and one anybody ought to beware. What is obvious is that he has not been the identical participant he was to start out the season. These splits:
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First 11 video games: 24.3 factors (52/46/79 capturing splits), 9.4 assists (3.1 turnovers), 8.1 rebounds a sport
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Final 11 video games: 20.3 factors (46/22/71 capturing splits), 8.7 assists (5.1 turnovers), 7.7 rebounds a sport
And sometimes this degree of protection:
What does it imply for James to be on a “good” group so removed from nice? That’s the query, and it’s one solely he can reply. The belief will come this season if it has not already. As a result of we do know now the Lakers are miles from true competition. In an effort to obtain these aforementioned 63% benchmarks, the Lakers must end the season 23-7 towards groups with successful information and 21-8 on the highway.
That isn’t taking place, not with a -4.7 web ranking. Not when blowout losses are compounding. Not when, a number of weeks shy of his fortieth birthday, James has but to overlook a single sport, and Davis has solely missed one.
Understanding that, do the Lakers get determined? And what does that desperation seem like? Zach LaVine shouldn’t be elevating them to true competition, the place Boston, Cleveland and Oklahoma Metropolis reside. They’ve little to supply past what younger expertise stays (Austin Reaves, Dalton Knecht and their ceilings) and first-round draft picks in 2029 and 2031. To mortgage that for good, or for related, requires a solution from James.
The Lakers have to know the place James stands on this season, the subsequent and past. Or they need to make their very own name. To deal the remainder of this decade’s property for a group that can’t win the title — and will see James retire at any season’s finish — could be insanity. However what can we name what it’s they’re doing?
The Lakers have didn’t win a playoff sequence in three of the previous 4 seasons and are on tempo to make it 4 out of 5. In that span, they’re 97-137 (.415 successful proportion) towards groups with successful information and 77-93 on the highway (.453 successful proportion), about what they’re now. Nothing has modified.
And why ought to we count on it to? James is clearly in decline, as he must be at 40, although his is nowhere as steep as everyone else’s. (Are we alleged to say that?) But he’s owed $48.7 million this season and $52.6 million subsequent season. It has confirmed not possible to reconstruct a contender round James and Davis, as a result of they will not carry one on their very own, and their salaries don’t permit for a lot help.
That is the Catch-22 in Los Angeles. James is nice sufficient to make the Lakers related, however not ok to make them contenders. So the sideshow should go on. How for much longer, solely James can inform us.
Dedication: Truth. LeBron James’ Lakers are caught within the center.
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