Many have debated whether or not the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs are Tremendous Bowl contenders or a fatigued crew headed for a fast postseason exit.
Should you abide by the previous sports activities betting saying, “Good groups win, nice groups cowl,” then you could have your reply as a result of the Chiefs are 4–7-1 towards the unfold this season, relying on the place you get your betting odds.
The Chiefs haven’t coated of their previous six video games, main many to imagine they’ll fall wanting their quest to change into the primary crew in NFL historical past to win three consecutive Tremendous Bowls.
However the Chiefs nonetheless obtain loads of public assist on the betting home windows and cellular apps. Surprisingly, that hasn’t been helpful for the sportsbooks as a result of bettors correctly aren’t selecting the 11-1 Chiefs towards the unfold.
“Yeah, the Chiefs don’t cowl, however you realize what, they do win video games,” says Vinny Magliulo, the sports activities director for Gaughan Gaming, a Las Vegas-based on line casino administration firm. “They’ve gained 11 of 12 and so they’re in each moneyline parlay, too. The general public doesn’t care that they don’t cowl the unfold. The general public simply cares in the event that they win the video games and so they can money their moneyline tickets on them.”
However bettors is likely to be enticed to take the Chiefs towards the unfold this week as a result of they gained’t be heavy favorites for the primary time in two months. Kansas Metropolis is at present a -3.5 dwelling favourite at FanDuel Sportsbook towards the Los Angeles Chargers for the AFC West conflict on Sunday Night time Soccer. The final time the back-to-back Tremendous Bowl champions weren’t laying greater than 5 factors as favorites occurred in Week 3 when the Chiefs coated the -3 vs. the Atlanta Falcons.
Technically, the Chiefs are 2–0 in video games they’re favored in by 4 factors or much less—they coated the -3 towards the Baltimore Ravens in Week 1. Kansas Metropolis was favored by 5.5 factors or extra towards the Cincinnati Bengals, Chargers (first assembly), New Orleans Saints, Las Vegas Raiders (twice), Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Denver Broncos and Carolina Panthers. Kansas Metropolis was the underdog towards the San Francisco 49ers and Buffalo Payments.
Chiefs supporters might need gotten a push in the event that they laid the factors within the Week 4 assembly vs. the Chargers, who had been seven-point dwelling underdogs at most sportsbooks. For the second assembly, Magliulo mentioned there was loads of cash positioned on the Chiefs towards the unfold when he had the opening week odds at -3.5, prompting a fast change of -4 by Monday morning.
“Professionals will wager towards the Chiefs,” Magliulo says in regards to the odds altering to -4. “We’ll see some assist for the Chargers.”
The Chargers are a well-liked underdog this week, however Justin Herbert lacks weapons and might be with out two of his greatest gamers, with working again J.Okay. Dobbins on injured reserve and rookie large receiver Ladd McConkey coping with a number of accidents. Maybe it’s greatest to proceed taking the Chiefs for moneyline parlays and keep away from the unfold for this one as a result of the Chargers do have a robust protection to probably maintain this recreation shut.
Sharp bettors have been eyeing the percentages for the New York Giants dwelling recreation towards the New Orleans Saints. Magliulo mentioned there was public assist for the Saints when he listed the percentages at -4 and -4.5, however that modified after the Giants bought noticed 5 factors for the NFL Week 14 matchup.
“Skilled bettors, they don’t wager groups, they wager numbers,” Magliulo says. “At 4.5, it’s in all probability a take [with the Giants].”
This week’s opening odds for the San Francisco 49ers (-4) internet hosting the Chicago Bears hadn’t modified as of Wednesday afternoon for Magliulo. That might be as a result of bettors need to wager on the determined and gifted 49ers, however are battling laying the 4 factors towards a Bears crew that might profit from a brand new head coach and additional days of relaxation. Chicago fired coach Matt Eberflus within the aftermath of the clock administration meltdown in the course of the Thanksgiving loss vs. the Detroit Lions. This could in all probability be 49ers or move, and don’t maintain your breath on this line dropping to a few factors.
Should you can’t deliver your self to again the Chargers, Giants or Bears, then maybe the Inexperienced Bay Packers might be the perfect underdog in Week 14. Magliulo mentioned he had many Packers backers at +3.5 for Thursday evening’s NFC North showdown towards the Lions. However Magliulo talked about he would not be shocked if the road dropped to a few factors, which might entice extra assist for Detroit.
*Betting traces from DraftKings Sportsbook
Follow the development: Payments (-3.5) at Rams
Lay the factors with the Payments as a result of the Rams have proven us who they really are up to now month. Don’t count on the Rams crew that beat the Minnesota Vikings in Week 8 and took the Lions to time beyond regulation in Week 1.
These Rams bought crushed by the Philadelphia Eagles at dwelling in Week 12 and had been fortunate to beat the New England Patriots and New Orleans Saints the previous three weeks. The Rams are a mediocre crew and the Payments are a lot better than that. Preserve using with Josh Allen and the red-hot Payments.
Engaging Wager: Raiders (+6.5) at Buccaneers
The Las Vegas Brock Bowers got here by way of for me final week masking towards the Chiefs. However possibly the Raiders are extra than simply Bowers after second-year quarterback Aidan O’Connell impressed in Kansas Metropolis. And Maxx Crosby was nearly unstoppable final week, giving me one more reason to assist the Silver and Black in Tampa Bay this week.
Moneyline Canine: Giants (+200) vs. Saints
As Magliulo talked about, the sharps will doubtless take the Giants at +4.5 factors or extra, however I’ll take it a step additional. The Saints simply misplaced Taysom Hill for the season as a consequence of damage and now must get on a airplane after solely scoring 14 factors at dwelling towards a Rams’ protection that struggles at linebacker and within the secondary.
“It’s in all probability a wager towards the Giants [mindset], however let’s keep in mind this, too,” Magliulo mentioned about Saints supporters this week. “The Saints, they misplaced a key part yesterday in Taysom Hill, who’s very integral to their offense. He’s a specialty participant, who offers them a whole lot of versatility.”
Not So Dangerous: Bengals (-5.5) at Cowboys
That is in all probability the week Joe Burrow gained’t have to fret about his protection blowing one other recreation if he once more generates 30-plus factors for the offense. Cooper Rush doesn’t stand an opportunity in a shootout towards Burrow even with CeeDee Lamb as his prime weapon. Count on Dallas’s two-game profitable streak to finish and it’d get ugly on Monday evening.
Keep Away: Cardinals (-2.5) vs. Seahawks
I would like no a part of these two evenly-matched groups. I don’t know what to anticipate as a result of each offenses have been inconsistent and each defenses have performed properly currently. Perhaps we get one other low-scoring recreation after the Seattle Seahawks beat the Arizona Cardinals, 16–6, in Week 12. Taking the beneath with a complete line of 44.5 is likely to be the one play for this NFC West battle.
Parlay: Chiefs (-218) vs. Chargers; Jets (+6) at Dolphins; Raiders (+6.5) at Buccaneers
I’m following the development right here and taking the Chiefs on the moneyline towards the Chargers. Once more, the Chargers are very skinny offensively and must play in a hostile atmosphere at Arrowhead Stadium. However I can’t deliver myself to wager on the Chiefs towards the unfold. They like to play dangerously. Banking on the New York Jets to place up one other struggle after dropping to the Seahawks by 5 factors final week. And rolling with Bowers and the Raiders for a second consecutive week.
Survivor Pool: Vikings (-245) vs. Falcons
Kirk Cousins threw 4 interceptions throughout final week’s loss towards the Chargers. The Vikings might need higher move rushers than L.A., and so they like to blitz opposing quarterbacks. Cousins might have one other multi-interception recreation throughout his return to Minnesota.
Finest Over/Below Complete: Payments-Rams (beneath 49.5, -108)
This is likely to be my largest threat of the week as a result of the Payments have scored 30 factors or extra in six consecutive video games. However I don’t see the Rams cracking 20 factors towards a robust Buffalo protection. I’m considering of a 28–17 recreation with the Payments killing loads of clock with working again James Cook dinner.
Odds refresh periodically and are topic to vary.
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