We all know it’s going to occur quickly sufficient. The 12-team playoff will broaden to 14 or 16 faculties, and possibly 24 or 32 after that.
It’s occurred earlier than. Previous to 2000, faculty soccer followers simply accepted that there could possibly be a number of nationwide champions, as unthinkable as that’s now. Anybody older than a present faculty pupil remembers the two-team BCS, which begat the four-team CFP, which in flip led to our present 12-team model.
On its face, growth simply is smart. Extra playoff faculties imply extra curiosity within the playoffs, which in flip means extra broadcast, ticket and donor income all the way in which round. What’s to not love? We’re having a lot enjoyable at 12, why not invite a number of extra faculties to the get together?
Associates, I undergo you that sooner or later, extra is completely not higher — everyone faucets out of an all-you-can-eat buffet sooner or later — and we’re at that time with faculty soccer. Twelve groups are the right quantity for the playoff, and with only one extra tweak, this will probably be an ideal format.
I do know, I’m as stunned at this flip of occasions as you might be. Let’s dig in.
This wonderful, ridiculous sport has a means of hurling itself out a third-story window and touchdown on a thick mattress of cotton sweet and gumdrops. At precisely the second that the playoff expanded to 12 faculties, the mixture of NIL funds and transfer-portal lures redistributed expertise across the nation in a means that destabilizes the dominance of the Alabama-Ohio State-Georgia oligarchy, strengthens the roster of the Oregon-Texas-Penn State behemoths, and bolsters the hopes of Tennessee-SMU-Indiana rankings newcomers.
In different phrases, the variety of faculties that would conceivably compete for a nationwide championship has grown to someplace between 12 and 15 … which makes for precisely the form of drama you need for the ultimate days of the common season.
You possibly can choose the validity of a playoff system by who it permits, and who it leaves out. Contemplate, first, the highest finish of the rankings. The BCS confirmed its limitations in 2004, when an undefeated Auburn was blocked from the championship recreation by BCS computer systems. UCF went undefeated in 2017, but didn’t even get a look from the four-team CFP committee. And it’s a miracle the four-team model survived for 10 years earlier than a Energy 5 debacle like final 12 months’s Florida State nightmare bubbled up.
No risk for such catastrophic flaws exists within the 12-team format. If you happen to go undefeated on the FBS stage, and also you’re taking part in a semblance of a aggressive schedule, you’re in. It is mainly assured. Losses might be mildly damaging (if you happen to’re Alabama) or completely devastating (if you happen to’re Miami or any Group of 5 college), however the pathway to a nationwide title is there for everybody who posts an ideal season, and that’s the way it ought to be.
Now, take into account the decrease finish of the rankings. The worst sin a playoff format can commit is admitting too many members who don’t have any probability of successful even a recreation. However as Miami, Ole Miss and South Carolina followers can attest, there are many faculties on the surface who may — certainly, have already got — knock off groups within the playoff bracket. That’s what you need, the right stability of alternative for gifted groups and penalty for failing to play your finest recreation, each week.
Plus, let’s be sincere right here: Faculty soccer isn’t nearly what occurs on the sector. There’s an inherent uncertainty to a sport the place each staff logistically can’t play each different one. If you need statistical validity, look to baseball’s 162 video games; if you’d like straight-track certainty, look to the NFL’s intentionally slender discipline.
The talk over worthiness is a part of faculty soccer’s DNA, animating tailgates and message boards and sports activities discuss radio and textual content threads. As followers of the sport, we want that, whether or not we need to admit it or not. This time round, the staff whose deserves we’re debating is Alabama; final 12 months it was … uh … Alabama. And subsequent 12 months it’ll in all probability be Alabama, too. (OK, this half in all probability wants to vary.)
There’s one other structural profit to the 12-team playoff: the opening-round bye. If we’re going to maintain convention championships — and that’s an entire totally different debate — then the faculties that win these titles deserve an additional week off. It’s a tangible reward for a season of success … or, within the potential case of Clemson, a case of dropping three video games in the correct convention.
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And right here is the place I’d provide the one tweak to the present CFP system. These groups that win their convention championship deserve a house recreation of their very own, not simply the 5-to-8 seeds. If you happen to survive the meat grinder of the common season and go on to win your convention title recreation, you must get the advantage of making your opponents come go to you in Eugene or Athens or Faculty Station within the quarterfinals. (And the advantage of not forcing your followers to journey, too.) Sure, an NFL stadium is a climate-controlled comfort. However faculty soccer was born out of maniacal circumstances, and a December recreation in Columbus or Knoxville or State Faculty could be an surroundings you merely can’t replicate in a MegaDome.
Alas, as soon as the Powers That Be get a style of how a lot cash this playoff will herald (trace: A complete lot), they’ll look to broaden it, no matter how growth advantages the game itself. And that’ll be a disgrace, as a result of it’ll rob the common season of nonetheless extra drama. So benefit from the rigidity inherent in each one of many 11 video games of this playoff, for so long as we’ve got it.
Oh, and as for you Miami, Ole Miss and South Carolina followers — we perceive why y’all would desire a retroactive growth. However subsequent 12 months will probably be your 12 months, assured.
